Chayka Central Stadium · Referee Y. Matveev · Analysis updated 11:27 UTC
Chayka vs Chelyabinsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Chayka and 1.64 for Chelyabinsk, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Chelyabinsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chelyabinsk win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chayka home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chelyabinsk away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chelyabinsk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 29% / 24% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Chayka and 1.64 for Chelyabinsk, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–19.1%
- 0–27.5%
- 2–17.1%
Recent form
Chayka
- 2026-08-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Izberbash · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Rotor Volgograd · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernomorets · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Moskva · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs KAMAZ · 1-2 (L)
Chelyabinsk
- 2026-10-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ural · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tekstilshchik · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Kostroma · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Neftekhimik · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Enisey · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 40 |
| 2 | FC Sochi | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 32 |
| 3 | Torpedo Moskva | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Ural | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Spartak Kostroma | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 6 | Veles | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | FC UFA | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 8 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -1 | 21 |
| 9 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 10 | Rotor Volgograd | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Arsenal Tula | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 19 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -7 | 15 |
| 13 | Enisey | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | Leningradets | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 15 | KAMAZ | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 16 | FK Neftekhimik | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -11 | 13 |
| 17 | Ska-khabarovsk | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -10 | 10 |
| 18 | Tekstilshchik | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -14 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chelyabinsk win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.