· Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Chełmianka Chełm vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Chełmianka Chełm and 0.65 for Siarka Tarnobrzeg, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Chełmianka Chełm the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chełmianka Chełm win
67.2% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chełmianka Chełm home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Siarka Tarnobrzeg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chełmianka Chełm to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 21% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Chełmianka Chełm and 0.65 for Siarka Tarnobrzeg, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.9%
- 2–014.2%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.1%
- 3–08.9%
Recent form
Chełmianka Chełm
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hetman Zamosc · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KSZO 1929 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Kraków II · 2-0 (W)
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Korona Kielce II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Star Starachowice · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chełmianka Chełm · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 30 |
| 2 | KSZO 1929 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 23 |
| 3 | Naprzód | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | Wisłoka Dębica | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 20 |
| 6 | Czarni Połaniec | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 20 |
| 7 | Jarosław | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Wisła Kraków II | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce II | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Hetman Zamosc | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Busko-Zdroj | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 14 |
| 13 | Sokół Kolb. | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 14 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 12 |
| 16 | Star Starachowice | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chełmianka Chełm win, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.