Chełmianka Chełm vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Chełmianka Chełm and 0.69 for Wiślanie Jaśkowice, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Chełmianka Chełm the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Chełmianka Chełm win

52.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.36 – 0.69

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Chełmianka Chełm home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wiślanie Jaśkowice away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chełmianka Chełm to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 28% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.36 goals for Chełmianka Chełm and 0.69 for Wiślanie Jaśkowice, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Chełmianka Chełm win53%

Draw28%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

1–017.5%
0–012.8%
1–112.1%
2–011.9%
0–18.9%

Recent form

Chełmianka Chełm

2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hetman Zamosc · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KSZO 1929 · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Kraków II · 2-0 (W)

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisłoka Dębica · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sokół Kolb. · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Jarosław · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Busko-Zdroj · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Czarni Połaniec · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chełmianka Chełm	13	9	4	0	14	31
2	KSZO 1929	13	7	5	1	14	26
3	Wisłoka Dębica	14	8	2	4	5	26
4	Czarni Połaniec	14	7	3	4	2	24
5	Naprzód	13	7	2	4	3	23
6	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	14	6	3	5	6	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	3	20
8	Wisła Kraków II	14	5	4	5	-1	19
9	Jarosław	13	5	2	6	4	17
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	0	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Sokół Kolb.	13	3	7	3	0	16
13	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	-3	15
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	-3	14
15	Busko-Zdroj	14	4	2	8	-12	14
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	13	3	4	6	-7	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	-10	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	13	2	2	9	-14	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Chełmianka Chełm win, at 52.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.