Sir Gaetan Duval Stadium · Analysis updated 02:09 UTC
Chebel Citizens vs ASPL 2000 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Chebel Citizens and 0.90 for ASPL 2000, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives ASPL 2000 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.8% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ASPL 2000 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ASPL 2000 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 30% / 34% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Chebel Citizens and 0.90 for ASPL 2000, a combined 1.70 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 24% and both teams to score at 33%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–018.3%
- 0–116.4%
- 1–014.6%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–27.4%
Recent form
Chebel Citizens
ASPL 2000
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Durban City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Durban City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Galaxy · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Galaxy · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-05-28T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Pamplemousses · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.