Stamford Bridge · Referee Samuel Barrott, England · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Chelsea vs Bournemouth Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Chelsea and 1.00 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Chelsea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chelsea win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chelsea home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bournemouth away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.4%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–06.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.50 (model 48.3% vs market 36.5%, edge +11.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.50 | 36.5% | 48.3% | 2.07 | +11.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 23.9% | 24.0% | 4.17 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.9% | 76.0% | 1.32 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.20 | 22.2% | 22.2% | 4.50 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 77.8% | 77.8% | 1.29 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.73 | 53.9% | 53.8% | 1.86 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.05 | 46.3% | 46.2% | 2.16 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 63.5% | 51.7% | 1.93 | -11.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Chelsea
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Brentford · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-2 (L)
Bournemouth
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-30T19:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 2-2 Bournemouth (Premier League)
- 2025-12-06T15:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 0-0 Bournemouth (Premier League)
- 2025-01-14T19:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 2-2 Bournemouth (Premier League)
- 2024-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 1-0 Bournemouth (Premier League)
- 2024-05-19T15:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 2-1 Bournemouth (Premier League)
- 2023-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 0-0 Bournemouth (Premier League)
- 2023-05-06T14:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 3-1 Bournemouth (Premier League)
- 2022-12-27T17:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 2-0 Bournemouth (Premier League)
- 2021-07-27T00:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 2-1 Bournemouth (Friendlies Clubs)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chelsea win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.