Chelsea vs Brentford Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Chelsea and 2.10 for Brentford, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives Brentford the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Brentford win

45.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 2.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Chelsea home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brentford away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Chelsea win34%

Draw21%

Brentford win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals55%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

1–27.9%
1–17.6%
2–27.2%
2–16.9%
1–35.6%

Recent form

Chelsea

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Brentford · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 6-3 (W)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-2 (L)

Brentford

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelsea · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Reading · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-01-17T15:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 2-0 Brentford (Premier League)
2025-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 2-2 Brentford (Premier League)
2025-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 0-0 Brentford (Premier League)
2024-12-15T19:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 2-1 Brentford (Premier League)
2024-03-02T15:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 2-2 Brentford (Premier League)
2023-10-28T11:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 0-2 Brentford (Premier League)
2023-04-26T18:45:00.000Z · Chelsea 0-2 Brentford (Premier League)
2022-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 0-0 Brentford (Premier League)
2022-04-02T14:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 1-4 Brentford (Premier League)
2021-12-22T19:45:00.000Z · Chelsea 2-0 Brentford (League Cup)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Brentford win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.