Chelsea vs Tottenham Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Chelsea and 1.43 for Tottenham, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Chelsea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Chelsea win

51.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.03 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Chelsea home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tottenham away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Chelsea win52%

Draw22%

Tottenham win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

2–19.3%
1–19.2%
2–26.6%
1–26.5%
2–06.5%

Recent form

Chelsea

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Brentford · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 6-3 (W)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-2 (L)

Tottenham

2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-01T09:45:00.000Z · Chelsea 1-2 Tottenham (Friendlies Clubs)
2026-05-19T19:15:00.000Z · Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham (Premier League)
2025-11-01T17:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 1-0 Tottenham (Premier League)
2025-04-03T19:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 1-0 Tottenham (Premier League)
2024-12-08T16:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 4-3 Tottenham (Premier League)
2024-05-02T18:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 2-0 Tottenham (Premier League)
2023-11-06T20:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 4-1 Tottenham (Premier League)
2023-02-26T13:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 0-2 Tottenham (Premier League)
2022-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 2-2 Tottenham (Premier League)
2022-01-23T16:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 2-0 Tottenham (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Chelsea win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.