Chelsea W vs Austria Wien W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Chelsea W and 1.58 for Austria Wien W, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives Chelsea W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Chelsea W win

53.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.25 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Chelsea W home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Austria Wien W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chelsea W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 20% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Chelsea W and 1.58 for Austria Wien W, a combined 3.83 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Chelsea W win53%

Draw20%

Austria Wien W win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

2–18.7%
1–17.7%
2–26.8%
3–16.5%
1–26.1%

Recent form

Chelsea W

2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham Hotspur W · 6-2 (W)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham W · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyon W · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal W · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Austria Wien W · 1-0 (W)

Austria Wien W

2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SK Rapid W · 6-0 (W)
2026-10-01T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Inter Milano W · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Sturm Graz W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea W · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kleinmünchen / BW Linz W · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

UEFA Champions League Women table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona W	2	2	0	0	9	6
2	Lyon W	2	1	1	0	8	4
3	Paris Saint Germain W	2	1	1	0	5	4
4	Bayern Munich W	2	1	1	0	3	4
5	Arsenal W	2	1	1	0	1	4
6	Inter Milano W	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Chelsea W	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Køge W	2	1	0	1	3	3
9	Juventus W	2	1	0	1	2	3
10	SL Benfica W	2	1	0	1	-2	3
11	Manchester City W	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Real Madrid W	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	Austria Wien W	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Paris FC W	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	OH Leuven W	2	0	1	1	-5	1
16	Roma W	2	0	1	1	-6	1
17	Häcken W	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	Servette Chênois W	2	0	0	2	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Chelsea W win, at 53.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.