Stamford Bridge · Referee A. Parker · Analysis updated 09:38 UTC
Chelsea W vs Birmingham City W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.14 expected goals for Chelsea W and 0.84 for Birmingham City W, a combined total of 3.98. That distribution gives Chelsea W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chelsea W win
82.1% probability
Expected goals
3.14 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chelsea W home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Birmingham City W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chelsea W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 11% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.14 goals for Chelsea W and 0.84 for Birmingham City W, a combined 3.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
18%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–09.6%
- 2–09.2%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–17.7%
- 4–07.6%
Recent form
Chelsea W
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham Hotspur W · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyon W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Austria Wien W · 1-0 (W)
Birmingham City W
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Everton W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlton Athletic W · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FA WSL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Chelsea W | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 16 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Manchester United W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 6 | Everton W | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Liverpool W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Arsenal W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | West Ham W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 10 | Aston Villa W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -7 | 6 |
| 12 | Brighton W | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Birmingham City W | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -15 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chelsea W win, at 82.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.