Wheatsheaf Park · Referee Kirsty Dowle · Analysis updated 10:53 UTC
Chelsea W vs Tottenham Hotspur W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.37 expected goals for Chelsea W and 1.29 for Tottenham Hotspur W, a combined total of 4.66. That distribution gives Chelsea W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chelsea W win
76.6% probability
Expected goals
3.37 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chelsea W home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tottenham Hotspur W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chelsea W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 13% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.37 goals for Chelsea W and 1.29 for Tottenham Hotspur W, a combined 4.66 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.8%
- 2–16.9%
- 4–16.6%
- 3–06.0%
- 2–05.4%
Recent form
Chelsea W
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham Hotspur W · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyon W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Austria Wien W · 1-0 (W)
Tottenham Hotspur W
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs London City Lionesses W · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Brighton W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace W · 7-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FA WSL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea W | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 19 |
| 2 | Manchester City W | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses W | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Manchester United W | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 11 |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Arsenal W | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton W | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 8 | Aston Villa W | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | Brighton W | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Liverpool W | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Birmingham City W | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | West Ham W | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace W | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chelsea W win, at 76.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.