· Analysis updated 05:16 UTC
Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Stomil Olsztyn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.15 expected goals for Chemik Bydgoszcz and 1.00 for Stomil Olsztyn, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Chemik Bydgoszcz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chemik Bydgoszcz win
79.3% probability
Expected goals
3.15 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chemik Bydgoszcz home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stomil Olsztyn away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chemik Bydgoszcz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 12% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.15 goals for Chemik Bydgoszcz and 1.00 for Stomil Olsztyn, a combined 4.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.2%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–07.8%
- 2–17.8%
- 4–06.5%
Recent form
Chemik Bydgoszcz
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lipno Stęszew · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stargard Szczeciński · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalisz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Września · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bałtyk Koszalin · 2-2 (D)
Stomil Olsztyn
- 2026-07-25T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Chemik Bydgoszcz · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Legia Warszawa U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Łomża · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-05-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia II · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-05-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wigry Suwałki · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chemik Bydgoszcz win, at 79.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.