· Analysis updated 13:31 UTC
Chemnitzer FC vs Magdeburg II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for Chemnitzer FC and 1.00 for Magdeburg II, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Chemnitzer FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Chemnitzer FC win
71.6% probability
Expected goals
2.60 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chemnitzer FC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Magdeburg II away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chemnitzer FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 16% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.60 goals for Chemnitzer FC and 1.00 for Magdeburg II, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 3–08.0%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
Chemnitzer FC
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs RSV Eintracht · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs BSG Chemie Leipzig · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Babelsberg 03 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Altglienicke · 2-0 (W)
Magdeburg II
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Luckenwalde · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Altglienicke · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BFC Dynamo · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Erzgebirge Aue · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Nordost table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 27 |
| 2 | Chemnitzer FC | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 26 |
| 3 | BFC Dynamo | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | Hallescher FC | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Altglienicke | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Erzgebirge Aue | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | FC Carl Zeiss Jena | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 8 | Greifswalder FC | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | FSV Zwickau | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 18 |
| 10 | Lokomotive Leipzig | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Magdeburg II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | SV Babelsberg 03 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | BFC Preussen | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | BSG Chemie Leipzig | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 | Hertha BSC II | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 9 |
| 16 | RSV Eintracht | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -16 | 6 |
| 17 | Luckenwalde | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -17 | 6 |
| 18 | Tasmania Berlin | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -25 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chemnitzer FC win, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.