· Analysis updated 15:07 UTC
Chemnitzer FC vs SV Babelsberg 03 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Chemnitzer FC and 1.04 for SV Babelsberg 03, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Chemnitzer FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chemnitzer FC win
56.5% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chemnitzer FC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SV Babelsberg 03 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.5%
- 3–16.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.40 (model 45.4% vs market 38.5%, edge +6.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.40 | 38.5% | 45.4% | 2.20 | +6.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 78.2% | 79.0% | 1.27 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 1.60 | 56.1% | 56.5% | 1.77 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.5% | 22.5% | 4.44 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.15 | 43.6% | 43.4% | 2.30 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 4.20 | 21.4% | 20.9% | 4.78 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.2% | 77.4% | 1.29 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 61.5% | 54.6% | 1.83 | -6.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Chemnitzer FC
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs RSV Eintracht · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs BSG Chemie Leipzig · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Babelsberg 03 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Altglienicke · 2-0 (W)
SV Babelsberg 03
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Luckenwalde · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Chemnitzer FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hallescher FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Zwickau · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · Chemnitzer FC 0-1 SV Babelsberg 03 (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2026-02-27T18:00:00.000Z · Chemnitzer FC 5-1 SV Babelsberg 03 (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2025-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · Chemnitzer FC 1-0 SV Babelsberg 03 (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2025-03-11T18:00:00.000Z · Chemnitzer FC 0-0 SV Babelsberg 03 (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2024-08-25T14:30:00.000Z · Chemnitzer FC 2-3 SV Babelsberg 03 (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2024-03-19T18:00:00.000Z · Chemnitzer FC 0-1 SV Babelsberg 03 (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2023-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · Chemnitzer FC 0-0 SV Babelsberg 03 (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2023-04-30T11:00:00.000Z · Chemnitzer FC 1-1 SV Babelsberg 03 (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2022-11-13T12:00:00.000Z · Chemnitzer FC 2-0 SV Babelsberg 03 (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2021-12-11T15:00:00.000Z · Chemnitzer FC 0-0 SV Babelsberg 03 (Regionalliga - Nordost)
Regionalliga - Nordost table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 31 |
| 2 | Chemnitzer FC | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 30 |
| 3 | Hallescher FC | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 28 |
| 4 | Altglienicke | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | FC Carl Zeiss Jena | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 26 |
| 6 | BFC Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 7 | Erzgebirge Aue | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 24 |
| 8 | Greifswalder FC | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 9 | Magdeburg II | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | FSV Zwickau | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Lokomotive Leipzig | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 12 | SV Babelsberg 03 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 16 |
| 13 | BFC Preussen | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -6 | 11 |
| 14 | Tasmania Berlin | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -18 | 11 |
| 15 | BSG Chemie Leipzig | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -7 | 10 |
| 16 | Hertha BSC II | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -13 | 10 |
| 17 | RSV Eintracht | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -17 | 9 |
| 18 | Luckenwalde | 14 | 2 | 0 | 12 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chemnitzer FC win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.