Stadion an der Gellertstrase · Analysis updated 08:23 UTC
Chemnitzer FC W vs Blau-Gelb Marburg W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Chemnitzer FC W and 2.11 for Blau-Gelb Marburg W, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Blau-Gelb Marburg W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Blau-Gelb Marburg W win
55.5% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 2.11
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Blau-Gelb Marburg W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 24% / 21% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.32 goals for Chemnitzer FC W and 2.11 for Blau-Gelb Marburg W, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 56% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 38/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 1–19.0%
- 0–27.2%
- 0–16.9%
- 1–36.7%
Recent form
Chemnitzer FC W
- 2026-08-16T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Blau-Gelb Marburg W · 0-6 (L)
- 2023-08-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hegauer FV W · 2-6 (L)
- 2022-08-21T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Köln W · 0-4 (L)
Blau-Gelb Marburg W
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Chemnitzer FC W · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T10:00:00.000Z · Chemnitzer FC W 0-6 Blau-Gelb Marburg W (DFB Pokal - Women)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Blau-Gelb Marburg W win, at 55.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.