Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park · Referee Jianxin Du, China · Analysis updated 00:20 UTC
Chengdu Better City vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.20 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Chengdu Better City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chengdu Better City win
50.3% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chengdu Better City home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shanghai Shenhua away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–08.0%
- 1–26.6%
Recent form
Chengdu Better City
- 2026-09-06T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Henan Jianye · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Shenyang Urban · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Shanghai Shenhua · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-08-15T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Hangzhou Greentown · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Yunnan Yukun · 0-1 (L)
Shanghai Shenhua
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zenit · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Tampines Rovers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Chongqing Tongliang Long · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Dalian Zhixing · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Shandong Luneng · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T11:35:00.000Z · Chengdu Better City 4-5 Shanghai Shenhua (Super League)
- 2026-05-01T12:00:00.000Z · Chengdu Better City 3-2 Shanghai Shenhua (Super League)
- 2025-09-21T12:00:00.000Z · Chengdu Better City 1-1 Shanghai Shenhua (Super League)
- 2025-05-02T11:35:00.000Z · Chengdu Better City 1-0 Shanghai Shenhua (Super League)
- 2024-11-02T07:30:00.000Z · Chengdu Better City 1-2 Shanghai Shenhua (Super League)
- 2024-06-16T11:35:00.000Z · Chengdu Better City 1-1 Shanghai Shenhua (Super League)
- 2023-08-26T11:35:00.000Z · Chengdu Better City 1-1 Shanghai Shenhua (Super League)
- 2023-05-23T11:35:00.000Z · Chengdu Better City 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua (Super League)
- 2022-11-12T11:30:00.000Z · Chengdu Better City 3-2 Shanghai Shenhua (Super League)
- 2022-08-17T09:30:00.000Z · Chengdu Better City 2-0 Shanghai Shenhua (Super League)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 52 |
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 49 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 21 | 47 |
| 4 | Shandong Luneng | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 42 |
| 6 | Yunnan Yukun | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | -3 | 40 |
| 7 | Qingdao Youth Island | 29 | 8 | 15 | 6 | -6 | 39 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 29 | 8 | 12 | 9 | -3 | 36 |
| 10 | Hangzhou Greentown | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | -12 | 32 |
| 12 | Tianjin Teda | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 31 |
| 13 | Shenyang Urban | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 29 |
| 14 | Henan Jianye | 29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | -4 | 28 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 29 | 5 | 12 | 12 | -11 | 22 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 29 | 6 | 3 | 20 | -28 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chengdu Better City win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.