· Analysis updated 16:21 UTC
Chênois vs Naters Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.62 expected goals for Chênois and 1.80 for Naters, a combined total of 4.42. That distribution gives Chênois the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chênois win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
2.62 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chênois home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Naters away threat
Scored in 8 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.4%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.5%
- 3–25.8%
- 1–15.7%
Recent form
Chênois
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Sion II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lancy · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Prishtina Bern · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Azzurri · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Meyrin · 3-1 (W)
Naters
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Azzurri · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Meyrin · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Echallens · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lausanne Sport II · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs La Chaux-de-Fonds · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · Chênois 3-4 Naters (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
- 2026-04-08T18:30:00.000Z · Chênois 1-1 Naters (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
- 2025-08-09T16:00:00.000Z · Chênois 2-2 Naters (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
- 2025-04-12T15:30:00.000Z · Chênois 2-1 Naters (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
- 2024-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Chênois 1-0 Naters (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
- 2024-04-27T15:30:00.000Z · Chênois 2-1 Naters (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
- 2023-10-14T15:00:00.000Z · Chênois 1-3 Naters (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
- 2022-11-27T13:30:00.000Z · Chênois 1-2 Naters (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
- 2022-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · Chênois 1-0 Naters (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
- 2022-04-09T15:30:00.000Z · Chênois 2-1 Naters (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
1. Liga Classic - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azzurri | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | Prishtina Bern | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 23 |
| 3 | Servette II | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 | Lausanne Sport II | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Sion II | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Portalban / Gletterens | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Monthey | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Naters | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 9 | Lancy | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Chênois | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Echallens | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Meyrin | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 13 | Stade Payerne | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | La Chaux-de-Fonds | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -17 | 10 |
| 15 | Coffrane | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Vevey Sports | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -13 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chênois win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.