· Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Chênois vs Stade Payerne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Chênois and 1.61 for Stade Payerne, a combined total of 4.01. That distribution gives Chênois the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Chênois win
55.2% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 1.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chênois home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stade Payerne away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chênois to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 19% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Chênois and 1.61 for Stade Payerne, a combined 4.01 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.7%
- 1–25.6%
Recent form
Chênois
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Sion II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lancy · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Prishtina Bern · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Azzurri · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Meyrin · 3-1 (W)
Stade Payerne
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Chênois · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Vevey Sports · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Portalban / Gletterens · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sion II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lancy · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Classic - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azzurri | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | Prishtina Bern | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 23 |
| 3 | Servette II | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 | Lausanne Sport II | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Sion II | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Portalban / Gletterens | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Monthey | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Naters | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 9 | Lancy | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Chênois | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Echallens | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Meyrin | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 13 | Stade Payerne | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | La Chaux-de-Fonds | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -17 | 10 |
| 15 | Coffrane | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Vevey Sports | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -13 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chênois win, at 55.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.