Cheongju vs Jeonnam Dragons Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.74 expected goals for Cheongju and 1.29 for Jeonnam Dragons, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Cheongju the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Cheongju win

48.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.74 – 1.29

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cheongju home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cheongju to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 24% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.74 goals for Cheongju and 1.29 for Jeonnam Dragons, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Cheongju win48%

Draw24%

Jeonnam Dragons win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.8%
2–19.4%
1–08.4%
2–07.3%
1–27.0%

Recent form

Cheongju

2026-09-20T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Ansan Greeners · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Asan Mugunghwa · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-04T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Seoul E-Land FC · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-29T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Hwaseong · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-23T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Gyeongnam FC · 1-1 (D)

Jeonnam Dragons

2026-09-19T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Suwon City FC · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimpo Citizen · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimhae City · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-28T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Cheonan City · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-23T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Hwaseong · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

K League 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Suwon Bluewings	28	19	5	4	25	62
2	Suwon City FC	28	15	9	4	22	54
3	Seoul E-Land FC	28	16	6	6	20	54
4	Daegu FC	28	15	7	6	17	52
5	Busan I Park	29	14	6	9	10	48
6	Hwaseong	29	12	9	8	12	45
7	Asan Mugunghwa	28	10	9	9	4	39
8	Gimpo Citizen	28	9	11	8	2	38
9	Gyeongnam FC	28	8	11	9	-2	35
10	Cheongju	29	6	14	9	-12	32
11	Seongnam FC	28	7	10	11	-7	31
12	Paju Citizen	28	8	7	13	-7	31
13	Yongin City	28	6	12	10	-7	30
14	Cheonan City	28	6	11	11	-4	29
15	Ansan Greeners	29	7	4	18	-23	25
16	Jeonnam Dragons	28	5	9	14	-17	24
17	Gimhae City	28	3	8	17	-33	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cheongju win, at 48.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.