· Analysis updated 12:47 UTC
Cherepovets vs Kolomna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Cherepovets and 1.05 for Kolomna, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Cherepovets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cherepovets win
50.8% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cherepovets home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kolomna away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cherepovets to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 25% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Cherepovets and 1.05 for Kolomna, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Cherepovets
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kosmos Dolgoprudny · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Luki-Energiya · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo St. Petersburg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tosno · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow 2 · 1-1 (D)
Kolomna
- 2025-11-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Zenit 2 · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-10-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kosmos Dolgoprudny · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-10-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Vologda · 3-5 (L)
- 2025-10-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Irkutsk · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-10-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chertanovo Moscow · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · Cherepovets 3-0 Kolomna (Second League - Group 2)
- 2025-06-08T15:00:00.000Z · Cherepovets 2-1 Kolomna (Second League - Group 2)
Second League - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murom | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 44 |
| 2 | Dinamo St. Petersburg | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 42 |
| 3 | Luki-Energiya | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 42 |
| 4 | Baltika II | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 40 |
| 5 | Chertanovo Moscow | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 39 |
| 6 | Torpedo Vladimir | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 32 |
| 7 | Kosmos Dolgoprudny | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Tver | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 24 |
| 9 | Cherepovets | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | -11 | 24 |
| 10 | Zvezda St. Petersburg | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 11 | Dinamo Vologda | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 23 |
| 12 | Spartak Moscow 2 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 13 | Yenisey II | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -17 | 19 |
| 14 | Iskra Smolensk | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -25 | 15 |
| 15 | Irkutsk | 21 | 3 | 2 | 16 | -35 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cherepovets win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.