Cherepovets vs Yenisey II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Cherepovets and 1.21 for Yenisey II, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Cherepovets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Cherepovets win

47.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.66 – 1.21

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cherepovets home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Yenisey II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cherepovets to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 24% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Cherepovets and 1.21 for Yenisey II, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Cherepovets win48%

Draw24%

Yenisey II win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.4%
2–19.5%
1–09.4%
2–07.8%
1–26.9%

Recent form

Cherepovets

2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kosmos Dolgoprudny · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Luki-Energiya · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo St. Petersburg · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tosno · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow 2 · 1-1 (D)

Yenisey II

2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cherepovets · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-06T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow 2 · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tver · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Iskra Smolensk · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Murom · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second League - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Murom	21	14	2	5	18	44
2	Dinamo St. Petersburg	20	12	6	2	22	42
3	Luki-Energiya	21	12	6	3	18	42
4	Baltika II	21	12	4	5	19	40
5	Chertanovo Moscow	21	11	6	4	21	39
6	Torpedo Vladimir	20	9	5	6	5	32
7	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	21	8	4	9	-6	28
8	Tver	21	7	3	11	-6	24
9	Cherepovets	20	7	3	10	-11	24
10	Zvezda St. Petersburg	20	5	9	6	0	24
11	Dinamo Vologda	20	6	5	9	3	23
12	Spartak Moscow 2	21	6	5	10	-6	23
13	Yenisey II	21	5	4	12	-17	19
14	Iskra Smolensk	21	3	6	12	-25	15
15	Irkutsk	21	3	2	16	-35	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cherepovets win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.