Cherepovets vs Zvezda St. Petersburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Cherepovets and 1.46 for Zvezda St. Petersburg, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Cherepovets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.

Model pick

Cherepovets or Draw

62.4% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.46 – 1.46

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Cherepovets win38%

Draw25%

Zvezda St. Petersburg win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.5%
1–28.4%
2–18.4%
0–17.9%
1–07.9%

Why the model likes this

Zvezda St. Petersburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cherepovets to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 25% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Cherepovets and 1.46 for Zvezda St. Petersburg, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Cherepovets

Zvezda St. Petersburg

2026-08-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Luki-Energiya · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Baltika II · 3-4 (L)
2026-08-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Yenisey II · 4-1 (W)
2026-07-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chertanovo Moscow · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo St. Petersburg · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second League - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dinamo St. Petersburg	17	11	4	2	20	37
2	Murom	17	12	1	4	17	37
3	Luki-Energiya	17	10	5	2	16	35
4	Chertanovo Moscow	18	9	5	4	15	32
5	Baltika II	17	10	2	5	14	32
6	Torpedo Vladimir	17	7	5	5	2	26
7	Cherepovets	17	7	2	8	-8	23
8	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	17	6	4	7	-5	22
9	Dinamo Vologda	16	6	3	7	5	21
10	Zvezda St. Petersburg	17	4	8	5	-2	20
11	Tver	17	6	1	10	-3	19
12	Spartak Moscow 2	16	4	3	9	-9	15
13	Yenisey II	17	4	2	11	-20	14
14	Irkutsk	16	3	2	11	-20	11
15	Iskra Smolensk	18	2	5	11	-22	11

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.