Chernihiv Stadium · Analysis updated 16:02 UTC
Chernihiv vs Nyva Ternopil Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Chernihiv and 1.18 for Nyva Ternopil, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Nyva Ternopil the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chernihiv home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Nyva Ternopil away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.8%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Chernihiv
- 2026-10-06T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Trostianets · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Poltava · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Metal Kharkiv · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs UCSA · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil · 1-0 (W)
Nyva Ternopil
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Prykarpattia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernihiv · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Metal Kharkiv · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · Chernihiv 1-0 Nyva Ternopil (Persha Liga)
- 2026-04-11T09:00:00.000Z · Chernihiv 1-0 Nyva Ternopil (Persha Liga)
- 2025-09-28T11:30:00.000Z · Chernihiv 0-2 Nyva Ternopil (Persha Liga)
- 2024-05-19T10:00:00.000Z · Chernihiv 3-3 Nyva Ternopil (Persha Liga)
- 2024-04-13T10:00:00.000Z · Chernihiv 0-0 Nyva Ternopil (Persha Liga)
Persha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 2 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | SK Poltava | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 4 | Kulykiv | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 21 |
| 5 | Yarud Mariupol' | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Oleksandria | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Nyva Ternopil | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 9 | Metal Kharkiv | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Prykarpattia | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 | Inhulets | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 12 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 13 |
| 13 | UCSA | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Probiy Horodenka | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -18 | 9 |
| 16 | Polissya II | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.