Chernihiv vs Polissya II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for Chernihiv and 1.32 for Polissya II, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Chernihiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Chernihiv win

48.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.77 – 1.32

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Chernihiv home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Polissya II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chernihiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 23% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.77 goals for Chernihiv and 1.32 for Polissya II, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Chernihiv win48%

Draw23%

Polissya II win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–110.6%
2–19.4%
1–08.1%
2–07.1%
1–27.0%

Recent form

Chernihiv

2026-10-06T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Trostianets · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Poltava · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Metal Kharkiv · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs UCSA · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil · 1-0 (W)

Polissya II

2026-09-28T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolos Kovalivka II · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Yarud Mariupol' · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T10:45:00.000Z · H vs Prykarpattia · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Persha Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	11	6	3	2	6	21
2	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	11	6	2	3	4	20
3	Oleksandria	11	5	4	2	6	19
4	SK Poltava	11	5	3	3	8	18
5	Yarud Mariupol'	11	5	3	3	2	18
6	Kulykiv	10	5	2	3	9	17
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	11	4	4	3	2	16
8	Prykarpattia	11	4	3	4	2	15
9	Metal Kharkiv	11	4	3	4	0	15
10	Nyva Ternopil	11	3	5	3	2	14
11	Inhulets	10	4	2	4	-2	14
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	11	4	0	7	-8	12
13	Chernihiv	10	2	4	4	-3	10
14	UCSA	11	2	4	5	-4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	11	2	2	7	-18	8
16	Polissya II	10	1	4	5	-6	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Chernihiv win, at 48.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.