Chernihiv Stadium · Analysis updated 21:43 UTC
Chernihiv vs Yarud Mariupol' Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Chernihiv and 1.46 for Yarud Mariupol', a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Yarud Mariupol' the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Yarud Mariupol' win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yarud Mariupol' away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yarud Mariupol' to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 28% / 26% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Chernihiv and 1.46 for Yarud Mariupol', a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–111.5%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.5%
- 0–28.4%
Recent form
Chernihiv
- 2026-10-17T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Prykarpattia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Trostianets · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Poltava · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Metal Kharkiv · 0-2 (L)
Yarud Mariupol'
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs UCSA · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-05T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Oleksandria · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Polissya II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Probiy Horodenka · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Persha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | SK Poltava | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Yarud Mariupol' | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | Oleksandria | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Kulykiv | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 21 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | Inhulets | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 | Prykarpattia | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | Nyva Ternopil | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Metal Kharkiv | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | UCSA | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Probiy Horodenka | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -20 | 9 |
| 16 | Polissya II | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -9 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yarud Mariupol' win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.