· Analysis updated 17:00 UTC
Cherno more II vs Benkovski Isperih Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for Cherno more II and 1.48 for Benkovski Isperih, a combined total of 3.29. That distribution gives Cherno more II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Cherno more II win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cherno more II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Benkovski Isperih away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cherno more II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 23% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.82 goals for Cherno more II and 1.48 for Benkovski Isperih, a combined 3.29 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.4%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
Cherno more II
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Svetkavitsa 14 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Botev Novi Pazar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympic Varna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Aksakovo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Chernomorets Balchik · 0-1 (L)
Benkovski Isperih
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Akademik Svishtov · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Dragoevo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ustrem Donchevo · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fratria II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorostol · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets III | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 2 | Chernolomets 1919 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 17 |
| 3 | Chernomorets Balchik | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Volov Shumen | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 16 |
| 5 | Svetkavitsa 14 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Benkovski Isperih | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Cherno more II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Septemvri Tervel | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 9 | Devnya 2005 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Riltzi | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 10 |
| 11 | Botev Novi Pazar | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | Olympic Varna | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Aksakovo | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Fratria II | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | Ustrem Donchevo | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Dorostol | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cherno more II win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.