Cherno more II vs Botev Novi Pazar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Cherno more II and 1.75 for Botev Novi Pazar, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Cherno more II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Cherno more II win

51.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.35 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cherno more II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Botev Novi Pazar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cherno more II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 20% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.35 goals for Cherno more II and 1.75 for Botev Novi Pazar, a combined 4.10 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Cherno more II win52%

Draw20%

Botev Novi Pazar win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals59%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

2–18.0%
2–27.0%
1–16.8%
3–16.3%
1–26.0%

Recent form

Cherno more II

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Svetkavitsa 14 · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Botev Novi Pazar · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympic Varna · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Aksakovo · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Chernomorets Balchik · 0-1 (L)

Botev Novi Pazar

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vihren · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Cherno more II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernomorets Balchik · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernolomets 1919 · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ludogorets III · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Northeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ludogorets III	11	9	1	1	23	28
2	Volov Shumen	11	7	2	2	19	23
3	Chernomorets Balchik	10	7	2	1	10	23
4	Chernolomets 1919	11	6	3	2	15	21
5	Svetkavitsa 14	11	6	1	4	5	19
6	Botev Novi Pazar	9	4	3	2	5	15
7	Septemvri Tervel	9	4	3	2	3	15
8	Cherno more II	10	4	2	4	5	14
9	Benkovski Isperih	9	4	2	3	3	14
10	Septemvri Dragoevo	11	4	2	5	-5	14
11	Olympic Varna	10	4	0	6	-6	12
12	Devnya 2005	10	3	1	6	-10	10
13	Riltzi	10	3	1	6	-12	10
14	Aksakovo	8	2	2	4	-5	8
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	2	1	7	-11	7
16	Fratria II	10	2	1	7	-20	7
17	Dorostol	10	0	1	9	-19	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cherno more II win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.