Ticha Stadium · Referee Radoslav Gidzhenov · Analysis updated 20:32 UTC
Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Cherno More Varna and 2.03 for Levski Sofia, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Levski Sofia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Levski Sofia win
58.7% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cherno More Varna home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Levski Sofia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Levski Sofia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 20% / 21% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Cherno More Varna and 2.03 for Levski Sofia, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.8%
- 0–29.0%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–36.7%
Recent form
Cherno More Varna
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ludogorets · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunav Ruse · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Arda Kardzhali · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 0-1 (L)
Levski Sofia
- 2026-09-17T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Red Bull Salzburg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Botev Vratsa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:15:00.000Z · H vs CSKA 1948 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Sofia · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Levski Sofia win, at 58.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.