Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Cherno More Varna and 1.44 for Lokomotiv Sofia, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Cherno More Varna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.63 – 1.44

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cherno More Varna home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lokomotiv Sofia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cherno More Varna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 24% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Cherno More Varna and 1.44 for Lokomotiv Sofia, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Cherno More Varna win42%

Draw24%

Lokomotiv Sofia win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–110.9%
2–18.9%
1–27.9%
1–07.5%
0–16.7%

Recent form

Cherno More Varna

2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ludogorets · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunav Ruse · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Arda Kardzhali · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 0-1 (L)

Lokomotiv Sofia

2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnicki NIS · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Varna · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cherno More Varna · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	9	8	1	0	17	25
2	CSKA Sofia	10	7	3	0	17	24
3	Ludogorets	9	7	2	0	9	23
4	CSKA 1948	10	7	1	2	9	22
5	Arda Kardzhali	10	5	2	3	3	17
6	Botev Plovdiv	10	5	1	4	2	16
7	Slavia Sofia	10	2	5	3	1	11
8	Spartak Varna	10	2	4	4	-5	10
9	Botev Vratsa	10	2	3	5	-10	9
10	Septemvri Sofia	10	2	2	6	-10	8
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	10	1	4	5	-7	7
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	10	2	1	7	-8	7
13	Cherno More Varna	10	1	3	6	-9	6
14	Dunav Ruse	10	1	2	7	-9	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.