Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.30 expected goals for Cherno More Varna and 2.10 for Ludogorets, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Ludogorets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 23% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ludogorets win

80.0% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.30 – 2.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cherno More Varna home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ludogorets to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 4% / 16% / 80% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.30 goals for Cherno More Varna and 2.10 for Ludogorets, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 23%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 20%.

Match result (1X2)

Cherno More Varna win4%

Draw16%

Ludogorets win80%

Double chance 1X

20%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

96%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score23%

Correct score

0–220.0%
0–119.1%
0–314.0%
0–09.1%
0–47.4%

Recent form

Cherno More Varna

2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ludogorets · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunav Ruse · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Arda Kardzhali · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 0-1 (L)

Ludogorets

2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cherno More Varna · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Sofia · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Varna · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	9	8	1	0	17	25
2	CSKA Sofia	10	7	3	0	17	24
3	Ludogorets	9	7	2	0	9	23
4	CSKA 1948	10	7	1	2	9	22
5	Arda Kardzhali	10	5	2	3	3	17
6	Botev Plovdiv	10	5	1	4	2	16
7	Slavia Sofia	10	2	5	3	1	11
8	Spartak Varna	10	2	4	4	-5	10
9	Botev Vratsa	10	2	3	5	-10	9
10	Septemvri Sofia	10	2	2	6	-10	8
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	10	1	4	5	-7	7
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	10	2	1	7	-8	7
13	Cherno More Varna	10	1	3	6	-9	6
14	Dunav Ruse	10	1	2	7	-9	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ludogorets win, at 80.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 23% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.