Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Ludogorets II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and 0.65 for Ludogorets II, a combined total of 1.63. That distribution gives Chernomorets 1919 Burgas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

76.3% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.98 – 0.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ludogorets II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chernomorets 1919 Burgas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 34% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and 0.65 for Ludogorets II, a combined 1.63 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win42%

Draw34%

Ludogorets II win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

66%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals48%

Over 2.5 goals22%

Over 3.5 goals8%

Both teams to score30%

Correct score

0–019.7%
1–019.2%
0–112.8%
1–112.5%
2–09.4%

Recent form

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportist Svoge · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Botev Plovdiv · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dobrudzha · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Volov Shumen · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Montana · 2-0 (W)

Ludogorets II

2026-10-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Montana · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunav Ruse · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Pleven · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fratria · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pirin Blagoevgrad · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia II	13	7	4	2	14	25
2	Vihren	13	7	4	2	13	25
3	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	13	7	4	2	13	25
4	Fratria	12	6	4	2	7	22
5	Beroe	13	6	3	4	5	21
6	Hebar 1918	13	6	2	5	8	20
7	Yantra 2019	13	6	2	5	2	20
8	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	13	5	5	3	1	20
9	Rilski Sportist	13	5	4	4	2	19
10	Marek	13	5	3	5	0	18
11	Nesebar	13	5	3	5	2	18
12	Spartak Pleven	13	5	2	6	-10	17
13	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	12	5	2	5	-1	17
14	Ludogorets II	11	4	3	4	0	15
15	Sportist Svoge	13	2	5	6	-5	11
16	Montana	12	3	2	7	-11	11
17	Dobrudzha	12	2	3	7	-9	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	13	0	1	12	-31	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 76.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.

A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.