efbet Arena · Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Spartak Pleven Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.39 expected goals for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and 0.65 for Spartak Pleven, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Chernomorets 1919 Burgas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win
76.0% probability
Expected goals
2.39 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Pleven away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chernomorets 1919 Burgas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 16% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.39 goals for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and 0.65 for Spartak Pleven, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.6%
- 1–011.4%
- 3–010.8%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–17.4%
Recent form
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Volov Shumen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Montana · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Pleven · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Fratria · 2-2 (D)
Spartak Pleven
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pirin Blagoevgrad · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Levski Krumovgrad · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fratria · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ludogorets II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia II | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Vihren | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Fratria | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Rilski Sportist | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Yantra 2019 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Nesebar | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Beroe | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 | Hebar 1918 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 11 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 12 | Marek | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 13 | Ludogorets II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Spartak Pleven | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 15 | Montana | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | -29 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win, at 76.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.