efbet Arena · Analysis updated 13:33 UTC
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Sportist Svoge Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and 0.37 for Sportist Svoge, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Chernomorets 1919 Burgas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 26% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win
72.3% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 0.37
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sportist Svoge away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.7%
- 2–018.5%
- 0–011.6%
- 3–010.9%
- 1–17.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.50 (model 74.3% vs market 60.5%, edge +13.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.50 | 60.5% | 74.3% | 1.35 | +13.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.03 | 92.0% | 93.0% | 1.08 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.50 | 27.1% | 27.7% | 3.61 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.40 | 20.6% | 20.7% | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 13.00 | 7.0% | 7.0% | 14.29 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.25 | 72.5% | 72.3% | 1.38 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 81.0% | 79.3% | 1.26 | -1.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.30 | 39.5% | 25.7% | 3.89 | -13.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportist Svoge · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Botev Plovdiv · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dobrudzha · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Volov Shumen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Montana · 2-0 (W)
Sportist Svoge
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hebar 1918 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Neftochimic Burgas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Sofia II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vihren · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1-1 Sportist Svoge (Second League)
- 2026-05-15T15:00:00.000Z · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1-0 Sportist Svoge (Second League)
- 2025-11-16T12:30:00.000Z · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1-0 Sportist Svoge (Second League)
- 2024-05-18T15:00:00.000Z · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0-1 Sportist Svoge (Second League)
- 2023-11-03T12:30:00.000Z · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1-2 Sportist Svoge (Second League)
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia II | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | Vihren | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 3 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Fratria | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Beroe | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Hebar 1918 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 20 |
| 7 | Yantra 2019 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Rilski Sportist | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 10 | Marek | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 | Nesebar | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 12 | Spartak Pleven | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 13 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Ludogorets II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 15 | Sportist Svoge | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 | Montana | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -31 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win, at 72.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 26% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.