Balchik Stadium · Analysis updated 20:56 UTC
Chernomorets Balchik vs Volov Shumen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Chernomorets Balchik and 2.20 for Volov Shumen, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Volov Shumen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Volov Shumen win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chernomorets Balchik home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Volov Shumen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.3%
- 1–17.6%
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.4%
- 1–36.1%
Recent form
Chernomorets Balchik
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Benkovski Isperih · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Volov Shumen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Svetkavitsa 14 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Botev Novi Pazar · 0-0 (D)
Volov Shumen
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Aksakovo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernolomets 1919 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cherno more II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernomorets Balchik · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · Chernomorets Balchik 2-1 Volov Shumen (Third League - Northeast)
- 2026-03-18T15:30:00.000Z · Chernomorets Balchik 2-2 Volov Shumen (Third League - Northeast)
- 2025-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · Chernomorets Balchik 3-0 Volov Shumen (Third League - Northeast)
- 2023-03-11T13:00:00.000Z · Chernomorets Balchik 6-0 Volov Shumen (Third League - Northeast)
- 2022-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · Chernomorets Balchik 2-0 Volov Shumen (Third League - Northeast)
- 2022-03-05T13:00:00.000Z · Chernomorets Balchik 2-2 Volov Shumen (Third League - Northeast)
- 2021-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · Chernomorets Balchik 3-0 Volov Shumen (Third League - Northeast)
Third League - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets III | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 28 |
| 2 | Volov Shumen | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Chernomorets Balchik | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Chernolomets 1919 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 21 |
| 5 | Svetkavitsa 14 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 19 |
| 6 | Botev Novi Pazar | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Septemvri Tervel | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Cherno more II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 |
| 9 | Benkovski Isperih | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Olympic Varna | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Devnya 2005 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 13 | Riltzi | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 10 |
| 14 | Aksakovo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Ustrem Donchevo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 16 | Fratria II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 17 | Dorostol | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -19 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Volov Shumen win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.