Chernomorets vs Spartak Kostroma Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Chernomorets and 1.33 for Spartak Kostroma, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Spartak Kostroma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

70.2% probability

High confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.06 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Chernomorets home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Kostroma away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spartak Kostroma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 30% / 27% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Chernomorets and 1.33 for Spartak Kostroma, a combined 2.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Chernomorets win30%

Draw27%

Spartak Kostroma win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–112.9%
0–112.1%
1–09.7%
0–09.1%
1–28.6%

Recent form

Chernomorets

2026-05-16T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ural · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Chayka · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 1-3 (L)
2026-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Sokol Saratov · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FK Neftekhimik · 0-4 (L)

Spartak Kostroma

2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Leningradets · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelyabinsk · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal Tula · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-26T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Ural · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nizhny Novgorod	15	13	1	1	29	40
2	FC Sochi	15	10	2	3	11	32
3	Torpedo Moskva	15	8	4	3	15	28
4	Ural	15	8	4	3	14	28
5	Spartak Kostroma	14	8	3	3	7	27
6	Veles	16	8	3	5	1	27
7	FC UFA	15	5	6	4	3	21
8	Volga Ulyanovsk	16	6	3	7	-1	21
9	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	4	8	2	4	20
10	Rotor Volgograd	15	5	4	6	5	19
11	Arsenal Tula	15	5	4	6	-10	19
12	Chelyabinsk	15	4	3	8	-7	15
13	Enisey	15	3	5	7	-14	14
14	Leningradets	15	3	5	7	-14	14
15	KAMAZ	15	3	4	8	-8	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	15	4	1	10	-11	13
17	Ska-khabarovsk	15	2	4	9	-10	10
18	Tekstilshchik	15	2	4	9	-14	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.