Chertanovo Moscow vs Cherepovets Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Chertanovo Moscow and 0.72 for Cherepovets, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Chertanovo Moscow the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Chertanovo Moscow win

72.5% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.28 – 0.72

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Chertanovo Moscow home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cherepovets away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chertanovo Moscow to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 17% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Chertanovo Moscow and 0.72 for Cherepovets, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Chertanovo Moscow win73%

Draw17%

Cherepovets win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

28%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

2–012.9%
1–011.3%
3–09.8%
2–19.3%
1–18.2%

Recent form

Chertanovo Moscow

2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Moscow 2 · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs KDV · 4-2 (W)
2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tver · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Iskra Smolensk · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chita · 3-0 (W)

Cherepovets

2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kosmos Dolgoprudny · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Luki-Energiya · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo St. Petersburg · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tosno · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow 2 · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second League - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Murom	21	14	2	5	18	44
2	Dinamo St. Petersburg	20	12	6	2	22	42
3	Luki-Energiya	21	12	6	3	18	42
4	Baltika II	21	12	4	5	19	40
5	Chertanovo Moscow	21	11	6	4	21	39
6	Torpedo Vladimir	20	9	5	6	5	32
7	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	21	8	4	9	-6	28
8	Tver	21	7	3	11	-6	24
9	Cherepovets	20	7	3	10	-11	24
10	Zvezda St. Petersburg	20	5	9	6	0	24
11	Dinamo Vologda	20	6	5	9	3	23
12	Spartak Moscow 2	21	6	5	10	-6	23
13	Yenisey II	21	5	4	12	-17	19
14	Iskra Smolensk	21	3	6	12	-25	15
15	Irkutsk	21	3	2	16	-35	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Chertanovo Moscow win, at 72.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.