· Analysis updated 13:10 UTC
Chertanovo Moscow vs Irkutsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.98 expected goals for Chertanovo Moscow and 0.44 for Irkutsk, a combined total of 3.42. That distribution gives Chertanovo Moscow the largest share of the 1X2 market at 88%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 88% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chertanovo Moscow win
87.5% probability
Expected goals
2.98 – 0.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chertanovo Moscow home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Irkutsk away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chertanovo Moscow to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 88%, against 88% / 9% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.98 goals for Chertanovo Moscow and 0.44 for Irkutsk, a combined 3.42 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
13%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.5%
- 3–014.4%
- 4–010.7%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–16.4%
Recent form
Chertanovo Moscow
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Irkutsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Vologda · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tekstilshchik · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Baltika II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Yenisey II · 1-2 (L)
Irkutsk
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chertanovo Moscow · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kosmos Dolgoprudny · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo St. Petersburg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cherepovets · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tver · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murom | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 44 |
| 2 | Dinamo St. Petersburg | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 42 |
| 3 | Luki-Energiya | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 42 |
| 4 | Baltika II | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 40 |
| 5 | Chertanovo Moscow | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 39 |
| 6 | Torpedo Vladimir | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 32 |
| 7 | Kosmos Dolgoprudny | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Tver | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 24 |
| 9 | Cherepovets | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | -11 | 24 |
| 10 | Zvezda St. Petersburg | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 11 | Dinamo Vologda | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 23 |
| 12 | Spartak Moscow 2 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 13 | Yenisey II | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -17 | 19 |
| 14 | Iskra Smolensk | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -25 | 15 |
| 15 | Irkutsk | 21 | 3 | 2 | 16 | -35 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chertanovo Moscow win, at 87.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 88% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.