· Analysis updated 17:59 UTC
Chertanovo U20 vs Akademiya Konoplev U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Chertanovo U20 and 2.25 for Akademiya Konoplev U20, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Akademiya Konoplev U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Akademiya Konoplev U20 win
56.7% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chertanovo U20 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Akademiya Konoplev U20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Akademiya Konoplev U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 23% / 20% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Chertanovo U20 and 2.25 for Akademiya Konoplev U20, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.2%
- 1–18.2%
- 1–36.9%
- 0–26.6%
- 2–26.4%
Recent form
Chertanovo U20
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fakel U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Moskva U19 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nizhny Novgorod U19 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Almaz Antey U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Moskva U19 · 1-3 (L)
Akademiya Konoplev U20
- 2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Makhachkala U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moskva U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rubin Kazan U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Fakel U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ural U20 · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Youth Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Moskva U19 | 26 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 62 |
| 2 | Zenit U19 | 25 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 38 | 54 |
| 3 | Krasnodar U19 | 25 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 33 | 53 |
| 4 | Rodina Moscow U19 | 25 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 51 |
| 5 | Lokomotiv Moskva U19 | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 22 | 50 |
| 6 | Akademiya Konoplev U20 | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 44 |
| 7 | Almaz Antey U19 | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | -2 | 41 |
| 8 | Spartak Moskva U19 | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | -4 | 31 |
| 9 | Rostov U19 | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 10 | Dinamo Moskva U19 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 14 | -8 | 29 |
| 11 | Dynamo Makhachkala U19 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 14 | -23 | 27 |
| 12 | Ural U20 | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | -23 | 25 |
| 13 | Chertanovo U20 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 15 | -26 | 23 |
| 14 | Nizhny Novgorod U19 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | -34 | 22 |
| 15 | Fakel U19 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | -25 | 16 |
| 16 | Rubin Kazan U20 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 18 | -34 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Akademiya Konoplev U20 win, at 56.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.