Chertanovo U20 vs Zenit U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Chertanovo U20 and 3.08 for Zenit U19, a combined total of 4.31. That distribution gives Zenit U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Zenit U19 win

74.0% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.23 – 3.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Chertanovo U20 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zenit U19 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zenit U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 12% / 14% / 74% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Chertanovo U20 and 3.08 for Zenit U19, a combined 4.31 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Chertanovo U20 win12%

Draw14%

Zenit U19 win74%

Double chance 1X

26%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

88%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals80%

Over 3.5 goals62%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–38.0%
1–27.8%
0–36.5%
0–26.4%
1–46.2%

Recent form

Chertanovo U20

2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fakel U19 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Moskva U19 · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nizhny Novgorod U19 · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Almaz Antey U19 · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Moskva U19 · 1-3 (L)

Zenit U19

2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moskva U19 · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Makhachkala U19 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rubin Kazan U20 · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-28T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Ural U20 · 6-3 (W)
2026-08-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Akademiya Konoplev U20 · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Youth Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CSKA Moskva U19	27	21	2	4	53	65
2	Zenit U19	27	19	3	5	45	60
3	Krasnodar U19	27	18	3	6	38	57
4	Rodina Moscow U19	27	17	3	7	32	54
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	27	15	5	7	20	50
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	27	14	5	8	12	47
7	Almaz Antey U19	27	13	5	9	-5	44
8	Spartak Moskva U19	27	7	11	9	-6	32
9	Rostov U19	27	9	5	13	-9	32
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	27	9	4	14	-8	31
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	27	8	4	15	-24	28
12	Chertanovo U20	27	7	5	15	-25	26
13	Ural U20	27	7	4	16	-26	25
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	27	6	4	17	-40	22
15	Rubin Kazan U20	27	6	3	18	-30	21
16	Fakel U19	27	5	4	18	-27	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Zenit U19 win, at 74.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.