Chertanovo Arena · Analysis updated 01:20 UTC
Chertanovo W vs Lokomotiv Moskva W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Chertanovo W and 2.02 for Lokomotiv Moskva W, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Lokomotiv Moskva W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lokomotiv Moskva W win
68.8% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 2.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chertanovo W home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lokomotiv Moskva W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lokomotiv Moskva W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 12% / 20% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Chertanovo W and 2.02 for Lokomotiv Moskva W, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.7%
- 0–113.5%
- 1–29.3%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–39.2%
Recent form
Chertanovo W
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ryazan W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Moskva W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Moskva W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Krasnodar W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Moskva W · 1-2 (L)
Lokomotiv Moskva W
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylya Sovetov W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Zvezda Perm W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ryazan W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Chertanovo W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T11:30:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Moskva W · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Supreme Division Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit W | 21 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 47 | 56 |
| 2 | CSKA Moskva W | 21 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 45 | 55 |
| 3 | Spartak Moskva W | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 49 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv Moskva W | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 44 |
| 5 | Dinamo Moskva W | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 32 |
| 6 | Krylya Sovetov W | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 32 |
| 7 | Chertanovo W | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -12 | 27 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan W | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | -6 | 24 |
| 9 | Zvezda Perm W | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -20 | 20 |
| 10 | Krasnodar W | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -14 | 17 |
| 11 | Rostov W | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -38 | 14 |
| 12 | Ryazan W | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | -30 | 12 |
| 13 | Yenisey W | 21 | 0 | 3 | 18 | -40 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lokomotiv Moskva W win, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.