· Analysis updated 11:48 UTC
Chertsey Town vs Greenwich Borough Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Chertsey Town and 2.50 for Greenwich Borough, a combined total of 4.75. That distribution gives Greenwich Borough the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Greenwich Borough win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chertsey Town home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Greenwich Borough away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Greenwich Borough to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 36% / 19% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Chertsey Town and 2.50 for Greenwich Borough, a combined 4.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.8%
- 1–26.1%
- 2–35.7%
- 2–15.5%
- 3–25.1%
Recent form
Chertsey Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheppey United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Poole Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Welling United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chichester City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Greenwich Borough · 3-2 (W)
Greenwich Borough
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sittingbourne · 4-3 (W)
- 2019-08-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Canterbury City · 2-3 (L)
- 2018-11-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Truro City · 0-3 (L)
- 2018-11-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Stortford · 1-0 (W)
- 2018-10-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mildenhall Town · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Greenwich Borough win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.