· Analysis updated 09:16 UTC
Chesham United vs Real Bedford Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.00 expected goals for Chesham United and 2.50 for Real Bedford, a combined total of 6.50. That distribution gives Chesham United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 93% for over 2.5 goals and 88% for both teams to score, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chesham United win
64.4% probability
Expected goals
4.00 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chesham United home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Bedford away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chesham United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 14% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.00 goals for Chesham United and 2.50 for Real Bedford, a combined 6.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–25.0%
- 4–25.0%
- 3–34.2%
- 4–34.2%
- 3–14.0%
Recent form
Chesham United
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dagenham & Redbridge · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Forest Green · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Forest Green · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelmsford City · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Bedford · 4-3 (W)
Real Bedford
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bishop's Stortford · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bury Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stamford · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bromsgrove Sporting · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chesham United · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chesham United win, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 88% and over 2.5 goals at 93%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.