· Analysis updated 17:28 UTC
Cheshunt vs Lewes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Cheshunt and 1.55 for Lewes, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Lewes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lewes win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cheshunt home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lewes away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.2%
- 0–211.7%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–29.1%
Recent form
Cheshunt
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cray Wanderers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lewes · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Welling United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eastbourne Borough · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Aveley · 2-4 (L)
Lewes
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Whitehawk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cheshunt · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Carshalton Athletic · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chatham Town · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Cheshunt 3-1 Lewes (Non League Premier - Isthmian)
- 2026-02-21T15:00:00.000Z · Cheshunt 0-0 Lewes (Non League Premier - Isthmian)
- 2025-10-28T19:45:00.000Z · Cheshunt 1-2 Lewes (Non League Premier - Isthmian)
- 2025-04-12T14:00:00.000Z · Cheshunt 1-2 Lewes (Non League Premier - Isthmian)
- 2025-01-04T15:00:00.000Z · Cheshunt 2-2 Lewes (Non League Premier - Isthmian)
- 2024-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Cheshunt 4-0 Lewes (Non League Premier - Isthmian)
- 2023-12-16T15:00:00.000Z · Cheshunt 1-2 Lewes (Non League Premier - Isthmian)
- 2022-04-09T14:00:00.000Z · Cheshunt 2-2 Lewes (Non League Premier - Isthmian)
- 2021-08-21T14:00:00.000Z · Cheshunt 2-2 Lewes (Non League Premier - Isthmian)
Non League Premier - Isthmian table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enfield Town | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Welling United | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Lewes | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 26 |
| 4 | Chatham Town | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 24 |
| 5 | Dartford | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 24 |
| 6 | Ramsgate | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 22 |
| 7 | Eastbourne Borough | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 22 |
| 8 | Carshalton Athletic | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | -5 | 22 |
| 9 | Burgess Hill Town | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 10 | Wingate & Finchley | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 11 | Dulwich Hamlet | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | St Albans City | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 13 | Leatherhead | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 14 | Whyteleafe | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 | Cheshunt | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 15 |
| 16 | Aveley | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -1 | 14 |
| 17 | Maldon & Tiptree | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -17 | 14 |
| 18 | Cray Wanderers | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 19 | Brentwood Town | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -1 | 12 |
| 20 | Three Bridges | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 9 |
| 21 | Stanway Rovers | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -20 | 7 |
| 22 | Whitehawk | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lewes win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.