· Analysis updated 14:02 UTC
Chester vs Stoke City U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Chester and 0.85 for Stoke City U21, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Chester the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chester win
67.2% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chester home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stoke City U21 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chester to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 19% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Chester and 0.85 for Stoke City U21, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.5%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.1%
- 3–08.2%
Recent form
Chester
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bedford Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spennymoor Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Worksop Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lower Breck · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Buxton · 1-3 (L)
Stoke City U21
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City U21 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordsjælland U21 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelsea U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Halifax Town · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Charlton Athletic U21 · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · Chester 0-1 Stoke City U21 (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chester win, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.