Deva Stadium · Analysis updated 16:33 UTC
Chester vs Worksop Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Chester and 0.86 for Worksop Town, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Chester the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chester win
54.6% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chester home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Worksop Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–010.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 54.1% vs market 48.5%, edge +5.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 48.5% | 54.1% | 1.85 | +5.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.15 | 44.0% | 45.4% | 2.20 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Away | 4.60 | 19.7% | 20.3% | 4.93 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.2% | 25.1% | 3.98 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.65 | 55.0% | 54.6% | 1.83 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 80.2% | 79.7% | 1.25 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.7% | 74.9% | 1.34 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 51.5% | 45.9% | 2.18 | -5.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Chester
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bedford Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spennymoor Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Worksop Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lower Breck · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Buxton · 1-3 (L)
Worksop Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs United of Manchester · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chester · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs AFC Telford United · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Telford United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Southport · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Chester 4-1 Worksop Town (National League - North)
- 2026-01-03T15:00:00.000Z · Chester 0-1 Worksop Town (National League - North)
- 2025-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · Chester 1-2 Worksop Town (National League - North)
- 2020-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · Chester 2-2 Worksop Town (FA Cup)
- 2012-11-14T19:45:00.000Z · Chester 0-2 Worksop Town (FA Trophy)
- 2012-11-10T15:00:00.000Z · Chester 2-2 Worksop Town (FA Trophy)
National League - North table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 26 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | South Shields | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | King's Lynn Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 6 | Hednesford Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Chester | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Buxton | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Bedford Town | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 | Hebburn Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 17 |
| 12 | Spalding United | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 13 | Chorley | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Worksop Town | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 17 |
| 15 | Marine | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 16 | Harborough Town | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 17 | Scarborough Athletic | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| 18 | Merthyr Town | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 19 | Radcliffe | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -5 | 15 |
| 20 | Brackley Town | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 23 | Southport | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chester win, at 54.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.