Chesterfield vs Crewe Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Chesterfield and 1.18 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Chesterfield the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Chesterfield home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Crewe away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chesterfield to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 28% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Chesterfield and 1.18 for Crewe, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Chesterfield win38%

Draw28%

Crewe win35%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–113.0%
1–011.1%
0–110.4%
0–08.8%
2–18.1%

Recent form

Chesterfield

2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Tranmere · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cheltenham · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Port Vale · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs York · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City U21 · 5-3 (W)

Crewe

2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Swindon Town · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Blackpool · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol Rovers · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rotherham · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa U21 · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Salford City	12	8	1	3	7	25
2	Barnet	11	6	4	1	8	22
3	Cheltenham	13	6	3	4	0	21
4	Crewe	13	5	6	2	0	21
5	York	12	5	5	2	8	20
6	Walsall	11	4	7	0	9	19
7	Chesterfield	13	5	4	4	6	19
8	Exeter City	13	5	4	4	3	19
9	Accrington ST	13	4	6	3	6	18
10	Shrewsbury	13	5	3	5	-4	18
11	Grimsby	13	4	5	4	3	17
12	Gillingham	13	4	5	4	0	17
13	Tranmere	13	3	7	3	0	16
14	Swindon Town	13	4	4	5	-3	16
15	Bristol Rovers	13	5	1	7	-4	16
16	Newport County	13	3	6	4	0	15
17	Rochdale	13	4	3	6	-7	15
18	Fleetwood Town	13	3	5	5	-2	14
19	Northampton	11	3	4	4	0	13
20	Oldham	12	3	3	6	-4	12
21	Colchester	12	2	6	4	-5	12
22	Rotherham	13	2	6	5	-6	12
23	Port Vale	11	3	3	5	-6	12
24	Crawley Town	11	1	3	7	-9	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.