Chesterfield vs Gillingham Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Chesterfield and 0.65 for Gillingham, a combined total of 1.65. That distribution gives Chesterfield the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

76.8% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 0.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Chesterfield home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gillingham away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chesterfield to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 34% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Chesterfield and 0.65 for Gillingham, a combined 1.65 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Chesterfield win43%

Draw34%

Gillingham win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

66%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals49%

Over 2.5 goals23%

Over 3.5 goals9%

Both teams to score30%

Correct score

0–019.2%
1–019.2%
0–112.5%
1–112.5%
2–09.6%

Recent form

Chesterfield

2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Tranmere · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cheltenham · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Port Vale · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs York · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City U21 · 5-3 (W)

Gillingham

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs York · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambridge United · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol Rovers · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tranmere · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rochdale · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Salford City	10	6	1	3	5	19
2	Barnet	8	5	3	0	9	18
3	Crewe	10	4	6	0	5	18
4	Gillingham	10	4	4	2	5	16
5	York	9	4	3	2	6	15
6	Walsall	9	3	6	0	6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	4	3	3	3	15
8	Cheltenham	10	4	3	3	0	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	5	0	5	-2	15
10	Rochdale	10	4	2	4	-1	14
11	Grimsby	10	3	4	3	2	13
12	Newport County	10	3	4	3	1	13
13	Tranmere	10	2	6	2	0	12
14	Exeter City	10	3	3	4	0	12
15	Accrington ST	10	2	5	3	-1	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	2	5	3	-1	11
17	Swindon Town	10	3	2	5	-5	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	3	2	5	-6	11
19	Colchester	9	2	4	3	-3	10
20	Rotherham	10	2	4	4	-4	10
21	Oldham	9	2	2	5	-4	8
22	Port Vale	8	2	2	4	-5	8
23	Northampton	8	1	4	3	-3	7
24	Crawley Town	8	1	2	5	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 76.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.

A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.