SMH Group Stadium · Referee A. Bannister · Analysis updated 03:32 UTC
Chesterfield vs Manchester City U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Chesterfield and 1.68 for Manchester City U21, a combined total of 3.82. That distribution gives Chesterfield the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chesterfield win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chesterfield home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Manchester City U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chesterfield to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 21% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Chesterfield and 1.68 for Manchester City U21, a combined 3.82 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 1–17.9%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.6%
- 3–16.0%
Recent form
Chesterfield
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crewe · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Colchester · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Port Vale · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crawley Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Tranmere · 4-2 (W)
Manchester City U21
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham Hotspur U21 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Chesterfield · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves U21 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mansfield Town · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · Chesterfield 5-3 Manchester City U21 (EFL Trophy)
- 2024-08-20T18:00:00.000Z · Chesterfield 1-1 Manchester City U21 (EFL Trophy)
- 2017-11-29T19:00:00.000Z · Chesterfield 2-2 Manchester City U21 (EFL Trophy)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chesterfield win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.