700th Anniversary Stadium · Analysis updated 03:29 UTC
Chiangmai United vs Khon Kaen United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Chiangmai United and 1.29 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Khon Kaen United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chiangmai United home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Khon Kaen United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Khon Kaen United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 31% / 28% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Chiangmai United and 1.29 for Khon Kaen United, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 0–112.3%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–28.4%
Recent form
Chiangmai United
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Muangthong United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Khon Kaen United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Esan Pattaya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kasetsart FC · 4-3 (W)
Khon Kaen United
- 2026-09-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Chiangmai United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Mahasarakham United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chanthaburi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mahasarakham United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kasetsart FC · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khon Kaen United | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Uttaradit | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Nong Bua Pitchaya | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Satun | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Kanchanaburi | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Chainat | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Chiangmai United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Phrae United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Chanthaburi | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Police Tero | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Nakhon Pathom | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Muang Loei United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Muangthong United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Esan Pattaya | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | Songkhla | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Mahasarakham United | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Kasetsart FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.