Leo Chiangrai Stadium · Referee K. Ponpasit · Analysis updated 18:01 UTC
Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.06 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Chiangrai United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.5% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chiangrai United home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chiangrai United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 28% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Chiangrai United and 1.06 for Chonburi FC, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–110.6%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
Chiangrai United
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Ratchaburi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Prachuap · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sisaket United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Buriram United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Chonburi FC · 1-0 (W)
Chonburi FC
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Buriram United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayong FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Chiangrai United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kanchanaburi · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Buriram United | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Prachuap | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Ratchaburi | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Uthai Thani | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Sisaket United | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | BG Pathum United | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Bangkok United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Rayong FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Ayutthaya FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Sukhothai FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Lamphun Warrior | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Chiangrai United | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Pattani | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Chonburi FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Rasi Salai United | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.