Soldier Field · Referee Jon Freemon, USA · Analysis updated 16:19 UTC
Chicago Fire vs Charlotte Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Chicago Fire and 1.35 for Charlotte, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Chicago Fire the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chicago Fire win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chicago Fire home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Charlotte away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chicago Fire to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Chicago Fire and 1.35 for Charlotte, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.1%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–06.8%
Recent form
Chicago Fire
- 2026-10-17T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New England Revolution · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-15T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Philadelphia Union · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · H vs New York City FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Charlotte · 1-0 (W)
Charlotte
- 2026-10-17T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Philadelphia Union · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-14T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Columbus Crew · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Dallas · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Chicago Fire · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · A vs DC United · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 32 | 55 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 51 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 51 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 48 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 47 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 46 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 42 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | -9 | 40 |
| 9 | Colorado Rapids | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -3 | 36 |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -5 | 34 |
| 12 | San Diego | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 | Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -18 | 31 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | -39 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 41 | 67 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 22 | 55 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 52 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 48 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 47 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 46 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | -12 | 41 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -9 | 39 |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -17 | 36 |
| 10 | Toronto FC | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | -9 | 36 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -1 | 35 |
| 12 | New York City FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 34 |
| 13 | DC United | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | -15 | 33 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | -14 | 30 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 30 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -24 | 25 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chicago Fire win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.